Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 25.5 | 96% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 33.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 35.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 71% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 46.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 13-18 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 25+ | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Moneyline | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Vikings vs. Bears | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 56.5 | 25% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 97% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Vikings vs. Bears. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the game is postponed, t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.7M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Vikings vs. Bears. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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