Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: brazil vs. japan - player props 91%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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