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Prognose: Nuggets vs. Thunder

Wie die Vorhersagemärkte „Prognose: Nuggets vs. Thunder" einpreisen — Polymarket-Mid plus Vergleich mit Betfair und Manifold.

Spread: Thunder (-8.5) 100% Spread -7.5 100% Spread -10.5 100% Spread -9.5 100% Volumen: $7.9M Schließt: 23 Oct 2026
Live-Markt öffnen →
Prognose: Nuggets vs. Thunder

Plattform-Vergleich

PlattformJA-QuoteNEIN-QuoteGebührKYCAuszahlung
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0 % (USDC on-chain) Bis $1.500 ohne KYC USDC, automatisch via UMA Live-Markt aufrufen →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH USDC, on-chain Live-Markt aufrufen →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Bis 7 % pro Trade US-only, KYC erforderlich USD Live-Markt aufrufen →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5 % Kommission Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade GBP / EUR Live-Markt aufrufen →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Spielgeld (mana) Keine — Spielgeld Mana (kein Cash-Out) Live-Markt aufrufen →

Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.

ErgebnisWahrscheinlichkeit
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)100%
Spread -7.5100%
Spread -10.5100%
Spread -9.5100%
Spread -5.5100%
Spread -4.5100%
Spread -2.5100%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 18.5100%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5100%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5100%
1H Moneyline100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5100%
1H Spread -0.5100%
3Q Spread -2.5100%
4Q Spread -3.5100%
4Q Spread -1.5100%
Race to 10100%
Race to 20100%
Race to 30100%
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 9.5100%
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5100%
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 19.5100%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5100%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5100%
Alex Caruso: Points O/U 4.5100%
Cason Wallace: Points O/U 4.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 9.5100%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 4.5100%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 9.5100%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5100%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5100%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 19.5100%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 4.5100%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Alex Caruso: Rebounds O/U 2.5100%
Alex Caruso: Rebounds O/U 3.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 11.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 13.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 15.5100%
Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 3.5100%
Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5100%
Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5100%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5100%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5100%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 7.5100%
Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 1.5100%
Alex Caruso: Assists O/U 2.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5100%
Aaron Gordon: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Aaron Gordon: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5100%
Aaron Gordon: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5100%
Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Cason Wallace: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Cason Wallace: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5100%
Cason Wallace: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5100%
Christian Braun: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Jalen Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Jalen Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5100%
Nikola Jokić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5100%
Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5100%
Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5100%
Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Cason Wallace: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Cason Wallace: Steals O/U 1.5100%
Cason Wallace: Steals O/U 2.5100%
Jamal Murray: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Nikola Jokić: Steals O/U 0.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Blocks O/U 0.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Blocks O/U 1.5100%
Chet Holmgren: Blocks O/U 2.5100%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Blocks O/U 0.5100%
Nikola Jokić: Blocks O/U 0.5100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Blocks O/U 0.5100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 236.50%
Team to Score First0%
Odd/Even Score0%
O/U 232.50%
O/U 234.50%
O/U 235.50%
Spread -21.50%
Spread -18.50%
Spread -15.50%
Spread -12.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -6.50%
O/U 221.50%
O/U 227.50%
O/U 224.50%
O/U 230.50%
O/U 233.50%
O/U 237.50%
O/U 238.50%
O/U 243.50%
O/U 240.50%
O/U 249.50%
O/U 246.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.50%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.50%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.50%
1H Spread -4.50%
1H O/U 114.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.50%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 7.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 8.50%
1H Spread -9.50%
1H Spread -7.50%
1H Spread -1.50%
1H O/U 106.50%
1H O/U 110.50%
1H O/U 118.50%
1H O/U 122.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.50%
1Q Spread -4.50%
1Q Spread -2.50%
1Q O/U 54.50%
1Q O/U 55.50%
1Q O/U 57.50%
1Q O/U 58.50%
1Q O/U 60.50%
1Q O/U 61.50%
2Q Spread -1.50%
2Q Spread -2.50%
2Q O/U 56.50%
2Q O/U 57.50%
3Q O/U 61.50%
4Q O/U 56.50%
4Q O/U 59.50%
4Q O/U 62.50%
Nuggets O/U 103.50%
Thunder O/U 112.50%
Nuggets O/U 104.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 50.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 51.50%
Thunder 1H O/U 55.50%
Nuggets O/U 108.50%
Nuggets O/U 109.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 52.50%
Thunder O/U 117.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 53.50%
Thunder 1H O/U 57.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 54.50%
Nuggets O/U 113.50%
Thunder O/U 122.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 55.50%
Thunder 1H O/U 59.50%
Thunder 2H O/U 65.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 56.50%
Nuggets O/U 114.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 57.50%
Thunder 1H O/U 61.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 58.50%
Nuggets O/U 118.50%
Nuggets O/U 119.50%
Nuggets 1H O/U 59.50%
Thunder 1H O/U 63.50%
Thunder O/U 127.50%
Nuggets O/U 123.50%
Thunder O/U 132.50%
Nuggets O/U 124.50%
Nuggets 2H O/U 53.50%
Nuggets 2H O/U 55.50%
Nuggets 2H O/U 57.50%
Nuggets 2H O/U 59.50%
Nuggets 2H O/U 61.50%
Thunder 2H O/U 57.50%
Thunder 2H O/U 59.50%
Thunder 2H O/U 61.50%
Thunder 2H O/U 63.50%
Overtime?0%
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 24.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 19.50%
Alex Caruso: Points O/U 9.50%
Alex Caruso: Points O/U 14.50%
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.50%
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 14.50%
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 19.50%
Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 24.50%
Cason Wallace: Points O/U 9.50%
Cason Wallace: Points O/U 14.50%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 19.50%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 24.50%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 9.50%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 14.50%
Christian Braun: Points O/U 19.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 14.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 19.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 24.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 14.50%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 24.50%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 29.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 9.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 14.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 19.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 29.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 34.50%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 39.50%
Jared McCain: Points O/U 4.50%
Jared McCain: Points O/U 9.50%
Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.50%
Jared McCain: Points O/U 19.50%
Marvin Bagley III: Points O/U 4.50%
Marvin Bagley III: Points O/U 9.50%
Marvin Bagley III: Points O/U 14.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 14.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 19.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 34.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 39.50%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 44.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 19.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 24.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 34.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 39.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 44.50%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 7.50%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 9.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.50%
Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.50%
Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.50%
Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 4.50%
Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 7.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Rebounds O/U 2.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 11.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 13.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 15.50%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.50%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.50%
Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 3.50%
Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 4.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 9.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 11.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 15.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 17.50%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 19.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.50%
Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.50%
Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 3.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.50%
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 1.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 2.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 4.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 5.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 7.50%
Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 9.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 1.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 2.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 4.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 5.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 7.50%
Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 9.50%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 2.50%
Christian Braun: Assists O/U 1.50%
Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 2.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.50%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.50%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 5.50%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 7.50%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.50%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.50%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 9.50%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 11.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 5.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 7.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 11.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 13.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 15.50%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 17.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 9.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 11.50%
Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.50%
Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Alex Caruso: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Cameron Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Cameron Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Cameron Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.50%
Cameron Johnson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.50%
Chet Holmgren: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.50%
Chet Holmgren: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Chet Holmgren: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Christian Braun: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Christian Braun: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Jalen Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Jamal Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Jamal Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Jamal Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.50%
Jamal Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.50%
Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.50%
Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.50%
Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.50%
Nikola Jokić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.50%
Nikola Jokić: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.50%
Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 1.50%
Alex Caruso: Steals O/U 2.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Steals O/U 0.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Steals O/U 1.50%
DeMar DeRozan: Steals O/U 2.50%
Jalen Williams: Steals O/U 0.50%
Jalen Williams: Steals O/U 1.50%
Jalen Williams: Steals O/U 2.50%
Jamal Murray: Steals O/U 1.50%
Jamal Murray: Steals O/U 2.50%
Nikola Jokić: Steals O/U 1.50%
Nikola Jokić: Steals O/U 2.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 0.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 1.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 2.50%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Blocks O/U 1.50%
Nikola Jokić: Blocks O/U 1.50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Blocks O/U 1.50%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.50%

Markt-Kontext

Nuggets vs. Thunder. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 27% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-23T01:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.

Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.

Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.

Live-Daten & Statistiken

Der Polymarket-Orderbuch-Preis bewertet Spread: Thunder (-8.5) mit 100% bei "Prognose: Nuggets vs. Thunder".

Spread: Thunder (-8.5) 100% Andere 0%

Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $7.9M.

Methodik dieser Bewertung

Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Nuggets vs. Thunder. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.

Auflösung & Auszahlung

Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.

Häufige Fragen

Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
Klaus WeberKlaus WeberMarktanalystundLena SchmidtLena SchmidtWirtschaftsautorin

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