Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 97% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 73% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 62% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 47% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 38% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 26% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 25% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 11% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 7% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 6% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 4% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: portugal vs. croatia - player props 97%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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