Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 69% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots | 67% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 54% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 28% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 21% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 5+ shots | 13% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 5+ shots | 12% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 8% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 6% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 5% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 92% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Portugal vs. Spain - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
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