Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 60% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: netherlands vs. morocco - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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