Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 46% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cucurella: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 95% Chance für prognose: spain vs. belgium - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Belgium, scheduled for July 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
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