Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 81% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 59% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 56% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Australia and Egypt, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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