Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| UTSA vs. Texas State | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| O/U 46.5 | 100% |
| O/U 48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 50.5 | 100% |
| O/U 52.5 | 100% |
| O/U 54.5 | 100% |
| O/U 56.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 25.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| UTSA 2H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| UTSA O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UTSA O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UTSA O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UTSA O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Brad Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Will Henderson III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Beau Sparks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Dawn Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| AJ Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Torrance Burgess Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon High Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylen Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davian Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| A'Marion Peterson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| David Amador II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon Young Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tucker Cusano: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mekhi Anderson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Owen McCown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Martin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DJ Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| T.J. West: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Miles Campbell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamel Hardy: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 64.5 | 0% |
| O/U 66.5 | 0% |
| Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -24.5 | 0% |
| Spread -27.5 | 0% |
| Spread -31.5 | 0% |
| Spread -34.5 | 0% |
| O/U 58.5 | 0% |
| O/U 60.5 | 0% |
| O/U 62.5 | 0% |
| O/U 68.5 | 0% |
| O/U 70.5 | 0% |
| O/U 72.5 | 0% |
| O/U 74.5 | 0% |
| O/U 76.5 | 0% |
| O/U 78.5 | 0% |
| O/U 80.5 | 0% |
| O/U 82.5 | 0% |
| O/U 84.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 31.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 37.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Texas State O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| UTSA 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| UTSA 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| UTSA 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 31.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 34.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 37.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| UTSA O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| Spread -22.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: UTSA vs. Texas State. In the upcoming college football game between UTSA and Texas State, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UTSA" if UTSA win the game. This market will resolve to "Texas…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $125K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: UTSA vs. Texas State. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
Jetzt „Prognose: UTSA vs. Texas State" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →