Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 94% |
| Spread -1.5 | 94% |
| Spread -7.5 | 94% |
| Spread -8.5 | 94% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| Spread -5.5 | 93% |
| Spread -10.5 | 93% |
| Spread -4.5 | 92% |
| Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| O/U 31.5 | 91% |
| Spread -13.5 | 89% |
| Spread -14.5 | 89% |
| Spread -6.5 | 88% |
| O/U 33.5 | 88% |
| Spread -3.5 | 86% |
| Spread -16.5 | 86% |
| O/U 35.5 | 86% |
| Spread -17.5 | 83% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| Spread -20.5 | 80% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| Spread -21.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 77% |
| Spread -23.5 | 75% |
| Spread -26.5 | 73% |
| Spread -24.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 72% |
| Spread -25.5 | 72% |
| Spread -27.5 | 69% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| Spread -30.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 62% |
| Spread -28.5 | 61% |
| O/U 47.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -29.5 | 56% |
| Spread -31.5 | 55% |
| Spread -51.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| Spread -32.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| Davion Gause: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| NC State 1H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| Spread -48.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Richmond O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Will Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Bailey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Joshisa Trader: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Preston Douglas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Vander Ploog: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keenan Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Victor Snow: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davion Dozier: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Provience: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sean Clarke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quanye Veney: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Snelsire: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamaal Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| NC State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -33.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -47.5 | 50% |
| Spread -50.5 | 50% |
| Spread -54.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 49% |
| Richmond O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 46% |
| Spread -37.5 | 43% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| Spread -35.5 | 42% |
| Spread -39.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 38% |
| Spread -38.5 | 34% |
| Spread -40.5 | 34% |
| Spread -44.5 | 33% |
| Spread -42.5 | 32% |
| O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| Spread -41.5 | 31% |
| Spread -36.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 22% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| O/U 65.5 | 16% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Richmond vs. NC State | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Richmond vs. NC State. In the upcoming college football game between Richmond and NC State, scheduled for September 11 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Richmond" if Richmond win the game. This market will resolve …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $171K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Richmond vs. NC State. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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