Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 69% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 61% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 55% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 46% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 39% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 26% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 94% Chance für prognose: france vs. sweden - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Sweden - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →