Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 74% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 38% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 21% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 89% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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