Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 52% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 46% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: England vs. DR Congo - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 91% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: England vs. DR Congo - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. DR Congo - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
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