Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 97% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 75% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals | 56% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots | 11% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: switzerland vs. algeria - player props 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →