Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 33% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 31% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 95% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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