Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 99% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Yasser Ibrahim: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marawan Attia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Hany: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Mostafa Zico: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Ramy Rabia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 24% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Ramy Rabia: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Mohanad Lasheen: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nahuel Molina: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Ahmed Fetouh: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Hamza Abdelkarim: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Egypt - Player Props" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
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