Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 82% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| UConn O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 30.5 | 62% |
| Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| UConn O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UConn O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| UConn 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UConn 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| UConn O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Miami (OH) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Miami (OH) O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| UConn 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| UConn vs. Miami (OH) | 42% |
| Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 57.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| O/U 63.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 18% |
| O/U 67.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 92% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: UConn vs. Miami (OH). In the upcoming college football game between UConn and Miami (OH), scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UConn" if UConn win the game. This market will resolve to "Mia…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $165K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: UConn vs. Miami (OH). Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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