Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Oregon vs. Oklahoma State | 95% |
| Spread -0.5 | 94% |
| Spread -1.5 | 93% |
| Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| Spread -3.5 | 90% |
| 1H Moneyline | 89% |
| Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| Spread -5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| Spread -6.5 | 86% |
| Spread -7.5 | 82% |
| O/U 41.5 | 82% |
| Spread -9.5 | 81% |
| Spread -8.5 | 80% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 77% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 9.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Spread -13.5 | 72% |
| Oregon O/U 32.5 | 71% |
| Oregon O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| Spread -15.5 | 67% |
| Spread -16.5 | 66% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 11.5 | 66% |
| Oregon O/U 34.5 | 65% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 12.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 64% |
| Spread -17.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 63% |
| Spread: Oregon (-18.5) | 62% |
| Oregon O/U 35.5 | 60% |
| Spread -19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| Oregon O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Spread -20.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 55% |
| Oregon O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| Spread -21.5 | 54% |
| O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| Spread -22.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 18.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -23.5 | 52% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Dante Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Da'Jaun Riggs: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| Oregon O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Jordon Davison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dierre Hill Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamari Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah McClellan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dakorien Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Evan Stewart: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Wyatt Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justin Bowick: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Barnes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Miles Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drew Mestemaker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Simeon Price: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tre Page III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gatlin Bair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ayo Adeyi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kendre Harrison: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Kolb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rodney Harris II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrence Lewis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Oregon O/U 40.5 | 48% |
| Oregon O/U 38.5 | 48% |
| Spread -24.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Oregon O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 21.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -25.5 | 44% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 43% |
| Oregon O/U 41.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Spread -26.5 | 42% |
| O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 41% |
| Oregon O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -27.5 | 40% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 18.5 | 38% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Oregon O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Oregon O/U 42.5 | 36% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Spread -28.5 | 36% |
| Oregon O/U 43.5 | 35% |
| Spread -29.5 | 35% |
| O/U 61.5 | 34% |
| Spread -30.5 | 34% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Oregon O/U 44.5 | 32% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Spread -31.5 | 29% |
| O/U 63.5 | 28% |
| Oregon O/U 45.5 | 27% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 21.5 | 27% |
| Spread -32.5 | 27% |
| Oregon O/U 46.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 22.5 | 25% |
| Spread -34.5 | 24% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| Spread -37.5 | 19% |
| O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| Spread -38.5 | 16% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| O/U 73.5 | 14% |
| Spread -40.5 | 14% |
| Spread -41.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 10% |
| Spread -44.5 | 9% |
| O/U 77.5 | 8% |
| O/U 79.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 95% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-12T16:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $84K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State" auf Oscars Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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