Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Tulsa O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Tulsa O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Tulsa O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Tulsa O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| Tulsa O/U 18.5 | 91% |
| Tulsa O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| Tulsa O/U 28.5 | 62% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| O/U 77.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drew Mestemaker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tre Page III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Damari Alston: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trequan Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DJ McKinney: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Wyatt Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Miles Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Baylor Hayes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justin Bowick: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ayo Adeyi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Barnes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Luke Tevis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Oran Singleton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jimmy Calloway: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Kolb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Israel Polk: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| David Wells Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Micah Tease: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rodney Harris II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Shockley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tulsa O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -31.5 | 30% |
| Spread -34.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| O/U 43.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| O/U 73.5 | 6% |
| O/U 58.5 | 5% |
| O/U 79.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -4.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 3% |
| Spread: Oklahoma State (-14.5) | 2% |
| Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Tulsa 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 31% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-05T19:45:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $192K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Was war der Oscar 2025 Top-Markt?
- Best Picture, mit ~$2,8 Mio Volume auf Polymarket. 'Anora' startete als Underdog bei ~8 % und schloss bei ~62 % vor der Ceremony — die größte Bewegung in einem Oscar-Markt seit 2019.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
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