Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 70% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| O/U 36.5 | 67% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 23.5 | 67% |
| O/U 38.5 | 60% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Kennesaw State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 43% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| Arkansas State O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| O/U 52.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -12.5 | 35% |
| O/U 64.5 | 35% |
| O/U 66.5 | 35% |
| O/U 70.5 | 35% |
| O/U 72.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Arkansas State O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Spread -11.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| O/U 68.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Kennesaw State 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Kennesaw State 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Kennesaw State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Arkansas State 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Kennesaw State and Arkansas State, scheduled for September 26 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kennesaw State" if Kennesaw State win the game. T…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $172K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wer kann auf Eurovision-Märkte handeln?
- Polymarket ist global zugänglich, aber in DE/AT/CH/UK/US geo-blockiert — Trader nutzen dort Broker mit anderem Geo-Footprint, um auf das Orderbuch zuzugreifen. Eurovision-Märkte haben starke europäische Liquidität; deutsche/österreichische/schweizer Markt-Bewegungen treiben oft den Konsens.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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