Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Spread -21.5 | 100% |
| Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| Spread -25.5 | 100% |
| Spread -27.5 | 100% |
| Spread -28.5 | 100% |
| Spread -31.5 | 100% |
| Spread -33.5 | 100% |
| Spread -34.5 | 100% |
| Spread -35.5 | 100% |
| Spread -36.5 | 100% |
| Spread -37.5 | 100% |
| Spread -38.5 | 100% |
| Spread -39.5 | 100% |
| Spread -40.5 | 100% |
| Spread -41.5 | 100% |
| Spread -42.5 | 100% |
| Spread -43.5 | 100% |
| Spread -44.5 | 100% |
| Spread -45.5 | 100% |
| Spread -46.5 | 100% |
| Spread -47.5 | 100% |
| Spread -48.5 | 100% |
| O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| O/U 51.5 | 100% |
| O/U 53.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 44.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 50.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan 1H O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan 1H O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) 1H O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Miami (FL) Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL) | 0% |
| Spread -49.5 | 0% |
| Spread -50.5 | 0% |
| Spread -52.5 | 0% |
| Spread -55.5 | 0% |
| Spread -56.5 | 0% |
| Spread -58.5 | 0% |
| Spread -59.5 | 0% |
| Spread -62.5 | 0% |
| O/U 55.5 | 0% |
| O/U 57.5 | 0% |
| O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| O/U 61.5 | 0% |
| O/U 63.5 | 0% |
| O/U 65.5 | 0% |
| O/U 67.5 | 0% |
| O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| O/U 71.5 | 0% |
| O/U 73.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 2H Spread -23.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) O/U 53.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan 1H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan 2H O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan 2H O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan 2H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) 2H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 2H Moneyline | 0% |
| Central Michigan O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 0% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 0% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Miami (FL) Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL): Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: central michigan vs. miami (fl). Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between Central Michigan and Miami (FL), scheduled for September 26 at 6:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Central Michigan" if Central Mi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $121K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: Central Michigan vs. Miami (FL). Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie zuverlässig sind Vorhersagen für Awards?
- Variabel. Branchen-vorhersehbare Awards (Oscar Best Picture) haben hohe Markt-Genauigkeit (Brier ~0,15). Reality-TV-Outcomes mit kleinen Märkten haben mehr Rauschen. Eurovision ist berüchtigt für Markt-Überraschungen wegen Block-Voting.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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