Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Oscars Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Markt aufrufen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 40.5 | 77% |
| O/U 46.5 | 72% |
| O/U 34.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Spread -18.5 | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Adam Mohammed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tylik Hill: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Umari Hatcher: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Shavane Anderson Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ian Strong: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Hendricks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cole Weaver: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matt Outten: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Mini: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| David Clement: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Steve Angeli: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Emory: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Noah Meyers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Perry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dorian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Carter Vargas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darien Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian McFadden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zamondre Merriweather: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyion Grayes: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Hamper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Syracuse 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| O/U 52.5 | 41% |
| Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -11.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| California vs. Syracuse | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| Spread -16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| O/U 55.5 | 32% |
| O/U 62.5 | 32% |
| O/U 68.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 58.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| O/U 56.5 | 24% |
| O/U 70.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
California vs. Syracuse. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 29% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-12T19:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $281K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Entertainment-spezifische Vergleichsseite für Prognose: California vs. Syracuse. Polymarkets Live-Quote (Polygon-Orderbuch) zeigt die Award-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Bei Award-Märkten ist Polymarket meist die liquideste Plattform; Betfair hat ähnliche Märkte für Oscars/Emmys, Manifold für Eurovision.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Entertainment-Märkte werden nach offizieller Award-Ceremony oder Show-Ende aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt UMA Optimistic Oracle mit Source-URL zur offiziellen Award-Website. Two-Hour-Dispute-Window, dann Smart-Contract-Auszahlung in USDC.
Häufige Fragen
- Welche Unterhaltungs-Märkte gibt es?
- Oscar / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, sowie Reality-TV-Outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume liegt typischerweise im fünf- bis sechsstelligen Bereich pro Markt.
- Wann werden Award-Märkte aufgelöst?
- Nach offizieller Bekanntgabe — z.B. Oscar-Ceremony-Ende für Academy-Awards-Märkte, Eurovision-Finale-Ende für ESC-Märkte. UMA Optimistic Oracle nutzt typischerweise die offizielle Award-Website als Resolution-Quelle.
- Wie werden Reality-TV-Outcomes verifiziert?
- UMA Oracle nutzt die offizielle Show-Website oder das Produzent-Statement als Resolution-Quelle. Bei sehr eng definierten Märkten (z.B. 'Wird X von der Insel gewählt?') wird die offizielle Sendung-Show-Notes als Source genutzt.
- Gibt es Polit-Entertainment-Crossover-Märkte?
- Ja — z.B. 'Wird X im SNL-Sketch parodiert?' oder 'Wer hostet die nächsten Oscars?'. Diese Märkte haben dünnere Liquidität, sind aber für Trader spannend, die Pop-Kultur- und Polit-Sphäre überlappend lesen können.
- Lohnt sich Entertainment-Trading?
- Nische, aber lukrativ für Experten. Award-Märkte haben weniger informierte Trader als Polit-Märkte; wer Branchen-Expertise (Film, Musik) mit aktiver Recherche kombiniert, findet oft Mispricings. Volumen-Limit: Trader mit substanziellen Einsätzen verschieben den Markt.
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